Leading-Contest
Skill vs luck
Leading-Contest on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 100% (95% range 34%–100%) · profit +$1.4K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +0.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 3, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Leading-Contest: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 3, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xefe8af61e75cf922ac3ca7cca2d777ef41b5e0f2. Data CC BY 4.0.
Leading-Contest: +$1.4K on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 34%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$638
- Oct 19 – Nov 3
- +$725
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | BUY No @ 74¢ | Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? ↗ | $2.1K |
All 1 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.