Judicious-Isolation
0xef803b16bcd5b3a271d84cb90b01ef3d685ce64a
Judicious-Isolation: −$28K on 19 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 42% (95% range 23%–64%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$28K
return −47.8%
Settled bets
19
$58K staked
Won
42.1%
95% range 23%–64%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 13 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$28K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12 | SELL Team Vitality
@ 34¢
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs |
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs | $3.8K |
| Sep 12 | BUY Team Vitality
@ 47¢
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 4 Winner |
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 4 Winner | $10K |
| Sep 12 | SELL Anyones Legend
@ 99.9¢
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner |
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner | $20K |
| Sep 12 | SELL Hanwha Life Esports
@ 99.9¢
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner |
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner | $20K |
| Sep 12 | BUY Hanwha Life Esports
@ 59¢
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner |
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner | $15K |
| Sep 12 | BUY Hanwha Life Esports
@ 56¢
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner |
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner | $4.1K |
| Sep 11 | BUY Natus Vincere
@ 53¢
LoL: GIANTX vs Natus Vincere - Game 4 Winner |
LoL: GIANTX vs Natus Vincere - Game 4 Winner | $7.7K |
| Sep 11 | BUY GIANTX
@ 43¢
LoL: GIANTX vs Natus Vincere - Game 3 Winner |
LoL: GIANTX vs Natus Vincere - Game 3 Winner | $1.6K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.