Oily-Bowtie
0xedfc817d740e22ad2bbf1785183cf2cb1327b7b1
Oily-Bowtie: +$10K on 62 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 38%–62%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$10K
return +4.5%
Settled bets
62
$232K staked
Won
50.0%
95% range 38%–62%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 61 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- +$17K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$5.1K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$12K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7 | BUY CyberHero
@ 50¢
Dota 2: CyberHero vs Blasterbl - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: CyberHero vs Blasterbl - Game 2 Winner | $1.0K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Blasterbl
@ 58¢
Dota 2: CyberHero vs Blasterbl - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: CyberHero vs Blasterbl - Game 1 Winner | $2.0K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Team Synapse
@ 45¢
Dota 2: Team Synapse vs LEGION - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Synapse vs LEGION - Game 2 Winner | $2.0K |
| Sep 29 | BUY GamerLegion
@ 36¢
Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner | $1.6K |
| Sep 29 | BUY 1win
@ 47¢
Dota 2: 1win vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: 1win vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner | $3.0K |
| Sep 27 | BUY LGD Gaming
@ 57¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner | $4.0K |
| Sep 26 | BUY Aurora
@ 44¢
Dota 2: Aurora vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Aurora vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner | $3.0K |
| Sep 26 | BUY Xtreme Gaming
@ 62¢
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner | $4.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.