Nutty-Dwelling-Basics

0xedbbdd8110aff4e77421df3bd1d7c5c8d4cc63b8

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗
Profit
−$6.8K
return −10.0%
Settled bets
38
$68K staked
Won
42.1%
95% range 28%–58%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 36 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Sep 4 – Sep 20: −$9.4K Sep 20 – Oct 5: +$2.6K
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

In the live feed

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 5 Bought Latvia at 65¢
Spread: Cyprus (-1.5)
Spread: Cyprus (-1.5) $1.4K
Oct 4 Bought Jaguars at 50¢
Spread: Bengals (-2.5)
Spread: Bengals (-2.5) $2.5K
Oct 3 Bought Notre Dame at 54¢
Spread: Notre Dame (-20.5)
Spread: Notre Dame (-20.5) $1.4K
Oct 3 Bought Notre Dame at 93¢
Notre Dame vs. North Carolina
Notre Dame vs. North Carolina $1.4K
Oct 3 Bought Alabama at 67¢
Alabama vs. Mississippi State
Alabama vs. Mississippi State $2.0K
Oct 3 Bought Charlotte at 51¢
Spread: Memphis (-19.5)
Spread: Memphis (-19.5) $1.3K
Oct 2 Bought Yes at 25¢
Will Armenia win on 2026-10-02?
Will Armenia win on 2026-10-02? $1.0K
Sep 29 Bought Under at 53¢
Spain vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5
Spain vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 $1.2K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*) · computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed