Alienated-Drawer
0xed8e476d7249ddc5eff2b7a509f32a44f0817ec6
Alienated-Drawer: −$20K on 25 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 24% (95% range 12%–43%). Skill or luck: worse than the odds.
Profit
−$20K
return −44.5%
Settled bets
25
$45K staked
Won
24.0%
95% range 12%–43%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Worse than the odds. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 19 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$7.9K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$12K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19 | BUY Over
@ 60¢
Arizona State vs. Kansas: O/U 48.5 |
Arizona State vs. Kansas: O/U 48.5 | $2.0K |
| Sep 18 | SELL Over
@ 99.9¢
Lions vs. Bills: O/U 64.5 |
Lions vs. Bills: O/U 64.5 | $3.6K |
| Sep 18 | SELL Over
@ 99.9¢
Lions vs. Bills: O/U 52.5 |
Lions vs. Bills: O/U 52.5 | $4.1K |
| Sep 17 | BUY Over
@ 59¢
Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 |
Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 | $1.9K |
| Sep 15 | BUY Over
@ 47¢
Athletics vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 |
Athletics vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 | $1.9K |
| Sep 15 | BUY Real Madrid CF
@ 62¢
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) |
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) | $2.6K |
| Sep 14 | BUY Over
@ 62¢
Broncos vs. Chiefs: O/U 39.5 |
Broncos vs. Chiefs: O/U 39.5 | $4.0K |
| Sep 14 | BUY
@ 60¢
Broncos vs. Chiefs: O/U 36.5 AND Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-09-15? |
Broncos vs. Chiefs: O/U 36.5 AND Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-09-15? | $3.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.