Nervous-Parallelogram
0xec981ed70ae69c5cbcac08c1ba063e734f6bafcd
Nervous-Parallelogram: +$57K on 283 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 59% (95% range 54%–65%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$57K
return +6.0%
Settled bets
283
$959K staked
Won
59.4%
95% range 54%–65%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 283 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$26K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$30K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- +$1.3K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY Spirit
@ 69¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner | $3.1K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Spirit
@ 54¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner | $2.6K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Team Falcons
@ 25¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs | $1.3K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Spirit
@ 53¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner | $2.6K |
| Oct 9 | BUY PARIVISION
@ 80¢
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs |
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs | $2.4K |
| Oct 9 | BUY MOUZ
@ 85¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner | $1.0K |
| Oct 9 | BUY 1win
@ 48¢
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs |
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs | $1.4K |
| Oct 9 | BUY FURIA
@ 42¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner | $2.1K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.