Limited-Fleece-Way
0xeb2938a20cf70edf8e4898d4da0b46d85583fe87
Limited-Fleece-Way: −$44K on 37 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 46% (95% range 31%–62%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$44K
return −42.5%
Settled bets
37
$104K staked
Won
45.9%
95% range 31%–62%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 33 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$14K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$30K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27 | BUY Cincinnati
@ 65¢
Spread: Kansas State (-2.5) |
Spread: Kansas State (-2.5) | $1.9K |
| Sep 27 | BUY Cincinnati
@ 54¢
Spread: Cincinnati (-2.5) |
Spread: Cincinnati (-2.5) | $1.2K |
| Sep 26 | BUY Boston College
@ 45¢
Virginia Tech vs. Boston College |
Virginia Tech vs. Boston College | $2.3K |
| Sep 26 | BUY Tennessee
@ 37¢
Spread: Texas (-1.5) |
Spread: Texas (-1.5) | $1.0K |
| Sep 26 | BUY Over
@ 39¢
Wake Forest vs. Louisville: O/U 56.5 |
Wake Forest vs. Louisville: O/U 56.5 | $1.6K |
| Sep 25 | SELL UAB
@ 29¢
Navy vs. UAB |
Navy vs. UAB | $3.6K |
| Sep 25 | BUY Over
@ 46¢
Falcons vs. Packers: O/U 43.5 |
Falcons vs. Packers: O/U 43.5 | $2.7K |
| Sep 25 | BUY Liberty
@ 47¢
Spread: Liberty (-7.5) |
Spread: Liberty (-7.5) | $1.1K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.