Excitable-Bakeware-Deck
0xeae1e3f0da9c9adcdd69c021cd0385d9a6b4a67b
Excitable-Bakeware-Deck: +$26K on 25 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 56% (95% range 37%–73%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$26K
return +9.4%
Settled bets
25
$277K staked
Won
56.0%
95% range 37%–73%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 17 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$6.2K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$34K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$1.7K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8 | SELL Yanaki Milev
@ 78¢
Palermo: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Yanaki Milev |
Palermo: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Yanaki Milev | $18K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Dalibor Svrcina
@ 97¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Yoshihito Nishioka vs Dalibor Svrcina |
Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Yoshihito Nishioka vs Dalibor Svrcina | $21K |
| Oct 5 | SELL Bernard Tomic
@ 99.9¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Terence Atmane vs Bernard Tomic |
Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Terence Atmane vs Bernard Tomic | $51K |
| Oct 5 | BUY Bernard Tomic
@ 97¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Terence Atmane vs Bernard Tomic |
Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Terence Atmane vs Bernard Tomic | $66K |
| Oct 5 | BUY Nicolas Mejia
@ 89¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Nicolas Mejia |
Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Nicolas Mejia | $5.6K |
| Sep 22 | BUY Federico Coria
@ 13¢
Buenos Aires 2: Lucio Ratti vs Federico Coria |
Buenos Aires 2: Lucio Ratti vs Federico Coria | $3.2K |
| Sep 22 | BUY Federico Coria
@ 12¢
Buenos Aires 2: Lucio Ratti vs Federico Coria |
Buenos Aires 2: Lucio Ratti vs Federico Coria | $3.9K |
| Sep 21 | BUY Pavel Lagutin
@ 99¢
Plovdiv 4: Pavel Lagutin vs Svyatoslav Gulin |
Plovdiv 4: Pavel Lagutin vs Svyatoslav Gulin | $14K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.