Friendly-Seed

0xe92dc43f6b7fce38276ef85553542e11b0570939

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Friendly-Seed: +$3.3K on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 80% (95% range 38%–96%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit
+$3.3K
return +13.9%
Settled bets
5
$24K staked
Won
80.0%
95% range 38%–96%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 5 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
+$8.3K
Sep 6 – Sep 23
−$5.0K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Sep 22 BUY Lucio Ratti @ 67¢
Buenos Aires 2: Lucio Ratti vs Federico Coria
Buenos Aires 2: Lucio Ratti vs Federico Coria $5.0K
Aug 29 BUY Aidan Mayo @ 69¢
Kingston 2: Aidan Mayo vs Andres Andrade
Kingston 2: Aidan Mayo vs Andres Andrade $5.0K
Aug 28 BUY Luis Guto Miguel @ 89¢
Kingston 2: Andrew Fenty vs Luis Guto Miguel
Kingston 2: Andrew Fenty vs Luis Guto Miguel $7.4K
Aug 23 BUY Sebastian Baez @ 60¢
Cancun: Sebastian Baez vs Lloyd Harris
Cancun: Sebastian Baez vs Lloyd Harris $3.0K
Aug 21 BUY Luca Van Assche @ 53¢
Quebec City: Benjamin Bonzi vs Luca Van Assche
Quebec City: Benjamin Bonzi vs Luca Van Assche $3.5K

All 5 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed