Unhappy-Collar
0xe885f33c65fc6c244a297e9df9361b35975995b7
Unhappy-Collar: −$57K on 16 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 31% (95% range 14%–56%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$57K
return −34.6%
Settled bets
16
$164K staked
Won
31.2%
95% range 14%–56%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 16 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$7.6K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$51K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- +$1.4K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6 | BUY Yes
@ 48¢
Will Finland win on 2026-10-06? |
Will Finland win on 2026-10-06? | $4.0K |
| Oct 5 | BUY Over
@ 44¢
Cyprus vs. Latvia: O/U 2.5 |
Cyprus vs. Latvia: O/U 2.5 | $4.3K |
| Oct 4 | BUY No
@ 62¢
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-10-04? |
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-10-04? | $3.2K |
| Oct 4 | BUY No
@ 62¢
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-10-04? |
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-10-04? | $8.1K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Yes
@ 53¢
Will Kataller Toyama win on 2026-10-03? |
Will Kataller Toyama win on 2026-10-03? | $3.8K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Yes
@ 53¢
Will Kataller Toyama win on 2026-10-03? |
Will Kataller Toyama win on 2026-10-03? | $3.7K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Yes
@ 52¢
Will Kataller Toyama win on 2026-10-03? |
Will Kataller Toyama win on 2026-10-03? | $2.6K |
| Sep 26 | BUY Yes
@ 49¢
Will Croatia win on 2026-09-26? |
Will Croatia win on 2026-09-26? | $11K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.