Frivolous-Liver-Misreading
0xe3763d38ba82a745900800ec11af21128f0e5149
Frivolous-Liver-Misreading: −$15K on 11 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 64% (95% range 35%–85%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$15K
return −33.7%
Settled bets
11
$45K staked
Won
63.6%
95% range 35%–85%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 10 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$2.7K
- Sep 6 – Sep 24
- +$5.5K
- Sep 24 – Oct 12
- −$18K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −10.9%
(2,374 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27 | BUY Ravens
@ 69¢
Spread: Ravens (-4.5) |
Spread: Ravens (-4.5) | $8.3K |
| Sep 26 | BUY FURIA Esports
@ 69¢
Game Handicap: FUR (-1.5) vs RED Canids (+1.5) |
Game Handicap: FUR (-1.5) vs RED Canids (+1.5) | $14K |
| Sep 26 | BUY LOUD
@ 45¢
Map Handicap: LOUD (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) |
Map Handicap: LOUD (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) | $2.3K |
| Sep 25 | BUY NRG
@ 51¢
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Champions Group D |
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Champions Group D | $1.3K |
| Sep 24 | BUY NRG
@ 50¢
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Champions Group D |
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Champions Group D | $2.5K |
| Sep 21 | SELL Xtreme Gaming
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage |
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage | $6.2K |
| Sep 21 | BUY Xtreme Gaming
@ 65¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage |
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage | $1.4K |
| Sep 12 | BUY Hanwha Life Esports
@ 36¢
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - LCK Playoffs |
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - LCK Playoffs | $6.1K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.