Productive-Vertigo

0xe3611dada6c5ea53af7bf22e80e07c005f48ae44

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗
Profit
−$133K
return −15.3%
Settled bets
71
$873K staked
Won
56.3%
95% range 45%–67%
Mostly bets on
esports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 57 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Aug 20 – Sep 4: −$4.4K Sep 4 – Sep 20: −$126K Sep 20 – Oct 5: −$2.8K
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Sep 26 Bought LYON at 70¢
LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 3 Winner
LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 3 Winner $3.0K
Sep 20 Bought Team Liquid at 95¢
LoL: Team Liquid vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner
LoL: Team Liquid vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner $3.3K
Sep 19 Bought Movistar KOI at 98¢
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner $15K
Sep 19 Bought Movistar KOI at 98¢
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner $15K
Sep 19 Bought Movistar KOI at 98¢
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner $15K
Sep 19 Bought Movistar KOI at 98¢
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner $15K
Sep 19 Bought Movistar KOI at 98¢
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner $15K
Sep 19 Bought Movistar KOI at 98¢
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner $15K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*) · computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed