Nocturnal-Sunlamp
0xe30172a60cda439db2b15b7c2cffe801ade38654
Nocturnal-Sunlamp: +$26K on 69 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 87% (95% range 77%–93%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$26K
return +8.9%
Settled bets
69
$288K staked
Won
87.0%
95% range 77%–93%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 67 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$233
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$31K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$5.3K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | BUY Yes
@ 92¢
Will Instituto AC Córdoba vs. CA Boca Juniors end in a draw? |
Will Instituto AC Córdoba vs. CA Boca Juniors end in a draw? | $2.7K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Over
@ 99¢
Moreirense FC vs. Gil Vicente FC: O/U 0.5 |
Moreirense FC vs. Gil Vicente FC: O/U 0.5 | $2.0K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Under
@ 93¢
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Henan FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5 |
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Henan FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5 | $2.0K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Under
@ 75¢
Santos FC vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 4.5 |
Santos FC vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 4.5 | $1.1K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Under
@ 69¢
Mexico vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 |
Mexico vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 | $1.6K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Under
@ 75¢
Mexico vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 |
Mexico vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 | $1.5K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Under
@ 96¢
Kazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands: O/U 4.5 |
Kazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands: O/U 4.5 | $5.6K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Under
@ 96¢
Kazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands: O/U 4.5 |
Kazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands: O/U 4.5 | $5.6K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.