Harmless-Fatigues

0xe2d0f0580716e47979206dcff5220695e7967bbf

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗
Profit
+$81K
return +43.7%
Settled bets
61
$184K staked
Won
32.8%
95% range 22%–45%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 34 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Aug 20 – Sep 4: +$12K Sep 4 – Sep 20: +$36K Sep 20 – Oct 5: +$32K
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 7 Sold Shopify Rebellion at 99.9¢
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner $29K
Oct 6 Bought Aurora Gaming at 42¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner $3.0K
Oct 6 Bought BetBoom Team at 32¢
Counter-Strike: 9z vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
Counter-Strike: 9z vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage $11K
Oct 6 Bought LGD Gaming at 46¢
LoL: JD Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner
LoL: JD Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner $3.1K
Oct 5 Bought Aurora Gaming at 44¢
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner $1.4K
Oct 5 Sold Aurora Gaming at 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner $25K
Oct 5 Bought M80 at 52¢
Counter-Strike: M80 vs TYLOO (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
Counter-Strike: M80 vs TYLOO (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage $12K
Oct 4 Sold LYON at 99.9¢
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 3 Winner
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 3 Winner $37K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*) · computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed