Identical-Speed
Skill vs luck
Identical-Speed on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 33% (95% range 6%–79%) · profit +$190. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 2, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Identical-Speed: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 2, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xe26f46c6db4571b0599d44fce7051fcb44521545. Data CC BY 4.0.
Identical-Speed: +$190 on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 6%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 18 – Nov 2
- +$190
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 | BUY Bills @ 85¢ | Ravens vs. Bills ↗ | $1.3K |
| Oct 30 | SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M? ↗ | $1.9K |
| Oct 30 | SELL Yes @ 97¢ | Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $40M? ↗ | $1.1K |
| Oct 27 | SELL No @ 77¢ | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? ↗ | $1.2K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.