Happy-Go-Lucky-Nestling
0xe16d3f2a5807999b358affd9445c3a09e45e5e30
Happy-Go-Lucky-Nestling: +$32K on 170 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 56% (95% range 49%–64%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$32K
return +2.3%
Settled bets
170
$1.41M staked
Won
56.5%
95% range 49%–64%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 169 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$63K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$16K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$15K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7 | BUY Yellow Submarine
@ 33¢
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Blasterbl (BO3) - PARI Universe Closed Qualifier Playoffs |
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Blasterbl (BO3) - PARI Universe Closed Qualifier Playoffs | $1.0K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Yellow Submarine
@ 56¢
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Blasterbl - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Blasterbl - Game 1 Winner | $3.0K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Yellow Submarine
@ 57¢
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Blasterbl - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Blasterbl - Game 1 Winner | $3.0K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Yellow Submarine
@ 50¢
Dota 2: Team Synapse vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Synapse vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner | $10K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Yellow Submarine
@ 49¢
Dota 2: Team Synapse vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Synapse vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner | $1.0K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Yellow Submarine
@ 50¢
Dota 2: Team Synapse vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Synapse vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner | $1.0K |
| Oct 6 | BUY HULIGANI
@ 56¢
Dota 2: HULIGANI vs CyberHero (BO3) - PARI Universe Closed Qualifier Playoffs |
Dota 2: HULIGANI vs CyberHero (BO3) - PARI Universe Closed Qualifier Playoffs | $2.0K |
| Oct 6 | BUY HULIGANI
@ 48¢
Dota 2: HULIGANI vs CyberHero - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: HULIGANI vs CyberHero - Game 2 Winner | $5.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.