Rubbery-Festival
Skill vs luck
Rubbery-Festival on Polymarket: 6 settled bets · won 83% (95% range 44%–97%) · profit +$1.5K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +0.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 3, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Rubbery-Festival: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 3, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xe11ab7e675ffc7136bb065ac13d0d9ba2247c40b. Data CC BY 4.0.
Rubbery-Festival: +$1.5K on 6 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 83% (95% range 44%–97%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$708
- Sep 4 – Sep 19
- +$542
- Oct 19 – Nov 3
- +$204
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 | BUY No @ 84¢ | Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? ↗ | $1.1K |
| Sep 15 | BUY No
@ 90¢
Will John Shulli be the Republican nominee for Senate in Delaware? |
Will John Shulli be the Republican nominee for Senate in Delaware? | $1.3K |
| Sep 14 | SELL Yes
@ 99.9¢
Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats? |
Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats? | $1.1K |
| Sep 5 | SELL Yes
@ 74¢
Will Anthony DiLorenzo be the Republican Nominee for NH-01? |
Will Anthony DiLorenzo be the Republican Nominee for NH-01? | $1.9K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.