Unwritten-Score

0xddf796e82987756b1273994f321c9cebed6643b4

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Unwritten-Score: −$7.3K on 17 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 47% (95% range 26%–69%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
−$7.3K
return −28.0%
Settled bets
17
$26K staked
Won
47.1%
95% range 26%–69%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 16 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Oct 1 – Oct 16
−$7.3K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.7% (2,012 positions).

Latest captured bets

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1792134019, computed 2026-10-16 07:00 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1792134019 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed