Better-Military

0xddc38b82423310f5bbf2e2dc58745661a624029c

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Better-Military: +$29K on 119 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 56% (95% range 47%–65%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$29K
return +10.3%
Settled bets
119
$279K staked
Won
56.3%
95% range 47%–65%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 100 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
−$1.4K
Sep 6 – Sep 23
+$14K
Sep 23 – Oct 11
+$16K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 9 BUY Galorys @ 61¢
Counter-Strike: Turma do Pagode vs Galorys (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South America Cup #3 Playoffs
Counter-Strike: Turma do Pagode vs Galorys (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South America Cup #3 Playoffs $1.0K
Oct 9 BUY Galorys @ 53¢
Counter-Strike: Turma do Pagode vs Galorys (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South America Cup #3 Playoffs
Counter-Strike: Turma do Pagode vs Galorys (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South America Cup #3 Playoffs $1.3K
Oct 9 BUY MOUZ @ 68¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner $1.3K
Oct 9 BUY MOUZ @ 67¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner $3.0K
Oct 9 BUY MOUZ @ 64¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner $1.5K
Oct 9 BUY MOUZ @ 39¢
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5)
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) $1.4K
Oct 9 BUY MOUZ @ 33¢
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5)
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) $1.7K
Oct 9 BUY Alter Ego @ 66¢
Counter-Strike: Alter Ego vs The Huns Esports - Map 1 Winner
Counter-Strike: Alter Ego vs The Huns Esports - Map 1 Winner $1.5K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed