Negligible-Marble
0xdd41f50129ca8f92d8ace0eccc01af5ca8269fb3
Negligible-Marble: −$10K on 17 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 88% (95% range 66%–97%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$10K
return −10.8%
Settled bets
17
$95K staked
Won
88.2%
95% range 66%–97%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 17 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$25
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$10K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6 | BUY Yes
@ 99.7¢
Will Switzerland win on 2026-10-06? |
Will Switzerland win on 2026-10-06? | $3.0K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Spain
@ 98¢
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) |
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) | $1.6K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Spain
@ 98¢
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) |
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) | $1.6K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Spain
@ 98¢
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) |
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) | $1.6K |
| Oct 6 | BUY
@ 90¢
Croatia vs. Spain: Spain O/U 0.5 AND Switzerland vs. North Macedonia: Switzerland O/U 0.5 AND England vs. Czechia: England O/U 0.5 |
Croatia vs. Spain: Spain O/U 0.5 AND Switzerland vs. North Macedonia: Switzerland O/U 0.5 AND England vs. Czechia: England O/U 0.5 | $5.0K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Spain
@ 98¢
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) |
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) | $1.7K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Spain
@ 98¢
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) |
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) | $1.7K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Spain
@ 98¢
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) |
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) | $1.7K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.