Vigilant-Environment
0xdbdd45150249e229eb4ca8aa48a30dca21faa5de
Vigilant-Environment: −$20K on 144 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 61% (95% range 53%–69%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$20K
return −6.6%
Settled bets
144
$300K staked
Won
61.1%
95% range 53%–69%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 144 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$11K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$7.9K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$16K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY No
@ 59¢
Galatasaray SK vs. Kasımpaşa SK: Both Teams to Score |
Galatasaray SK vs. Kasımpaşa SK: Both Teams to Score | $1.6K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Under
@ 82¢
Belarus vs. Italy: Belarus O/U 0.5 |
Belarus vs. Italy: Belarus O/U 0.5 | $1.1K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Heat
@ 45¢
Pelicans vs. Heat |
Pelicans vs. Heat | $1.8K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Knicks
@ 51¢
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) |
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) | $2.3K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Pacers
@ 46¢
Timberwolves vs. Pacers |
Timberwolves vs. Pacers | $1.4K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Benin
@ 41¢
Spread: Argentina (-4.5) |
Spread: Argentina (-4.5) | $1.8K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Over
@ 90¢
St. Vincent and the Grenadines vs. Sint Maarten: O/U 0.5 |
St. Vincent and the Grenadines vs. Sint Maarten: O/U 0.5 | $1.7K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Over
@ 50¢
Luxembourg vs. Bulgaria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners |
Luxembourg vs. Bulgaria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners | $2.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.