Conscious-Outfielder
0xdb83e85ffd22faa4009273034770f96ffc5b1e50
Conscious-Outfielder: −$11K on 105 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 51% (95% range 41%–60%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$11K
return −6.5%
Settled bets
105
$170K staked
Won
50.5%
95% range 41%–60%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 103 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$7.5K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$3.4K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17 | BUY Over
@ 47¢
Lions vs. Bills: O/U 55.5 |
Lions vs. Bills: O/U 55.5 | $1.5K |
| Sep 17 | BUY Matisse Bobichon
@ 91¢
Rennes: Adrian Mannarino vs Matisse Bobichon |
Rennes: Adrian Mannarino vs Matisse Bobichon | $1.3K |
| Sep 17 | BUY G2 Ares
@ 62¢
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Series 9 Group B |
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Series 9 Group B | $1.2K |
| Sep 17 | BUY MOUZ
@ 62¢
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) |
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) | $1.5K |
| Sep 17 | BUY MOUZ
@ 62¢
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) |
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) | $1.6K |
| Sep 17 | BUY G2 Ares
@ 62¢
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Series 9 Group B |
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Series 9 Group B | $1.1K |
| Sep 16 | BUY Carolina M. Alves
@ 40¢
Sao Paulo Open: Suzan Lamens vs Carolina M. Alves |
Sao Paulo Open: Suzan Lamens vs Carolina M. Alves | $1.3K |
| Sep 16 | BUY New York Yankees
@ 59¢
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins |
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins | $1.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.