International-Deal

0xdb42c28c9cbc06c2c4dd446b7094a256adce0ad9

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

International-Deal: +$741 on 79 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 82% (95% range 72%–89%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$741
return +0.2%
Settled bets
79
$308K staked
Won
82.3%
95% range 72%–89%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 79 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Aug 20 – Sep 4
+$2.2K
Sep 4 – Sep 20
+$2.2K
Sep 20 – Oct 5
−$3.7K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 9 BUY No @ 97¢
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-10-09?
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-10-09? $2.8K
Oct 9 BUY Yes @ 99¢
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-09?
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-09? $2.7K
Oct 9 BUY Yes @ 98¢
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-09?
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-09? $8.2K
Oct 6 BUY Yes @ 99¢
Will Albania win on 2026-10-06?
Will Albania win on 2026-10-06? $9.0K
Oct 6 BUY Yes @ 97¢
Will Albania win on 2026-10-06?
Will Albania win on 2026-10-06? $2.9K
Oct 6 BUY No @ 92¢
Will Faroe Islands win on 2026-10-06?
Will Faroe Islands win on 2026-10-06? $2.4K
Oct 5 BUY No @ 58¢
Will France win on 2026-10-05?
Will France win on 2026-10-05? $2.2K
Oct 5 BUY Yes @ 45¢
Will France win on 2026-10-05?
Will France win on 2026-10-05? $1.7K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed