Peaceful-Fire-Bell
0xda68a76eb2575456af9c65d375fa2cba049b6b7b
Peaceful-Fire-Bell: −$10K on 43 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 79% (95% range 65%–89%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$10K
return −5.0%
Settled bets
43
$202K staked
Won
79.1%
95% range 65%–89%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 42 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$9.2K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$1.6K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- +$817
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 | BUY Miami (FL)
@ 99.6¢
Central Michigan vs. Miami (FL) |
Central Michigan vs. Miami (FL) | $3.7K |
| Sep 25 | BUY Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in September? |
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in September? | $1.2K |
| Sep 25 | BUY Falcons
@ 98¢
Falcons vs. Packers |
Falcons vs. Packers | $9.8K |
| Sep 24 | BUY No
@ 95¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? |
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? | $9.5K |
| Sep 24 | BUY Yes
@ 99.9¢
Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by September 30, 2026? |
Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by September 30, 2026? | $11K |
| Sep 24 | BUY Yes
@ 97¢
Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by September 30, 2026? |
Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by September 30, 2026? | $1.3K |
| Sep 22 | BUY Yes
@ 99.7¢
Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026? |
Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026? | $1.5K |
| Sep 22 | BUY Yes
@ 99.89¢
Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026? |
Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026? | $2.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.