Long-Excess-Raid
0xd9cefea4c526b2e80947f85fbc75cb0f778311a2
Long-Excess-Raid: −$8.5K on 20 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 25% (95% range 11%–47%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$8.5K
return −27.5%
Settled bets
20
$31K staked
Won
25.0%
95% range 11%–47%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 10 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$8.5K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12 | BUY Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
@ 50¢
Cassis: Titouan Droguet vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer |
Cassis: Titouan Droguet vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | $2.0K |
| Sep 12 | BUY Pavel Kotov
@ 30¢
Shanghai: Pavel Kotov vs Marat Sharipov |
Shanghai: Pavel Kotov vs Marat Sharipov | $1.5K |
| Sep 12 | BUY G2
@ 40¢
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs G2 - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs G2 - Map 1 Winner | $1.7K |
| Sep 12 | SELL Virtus.pro
@ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Closed Qualifier Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Closed Qualifier Playoffs | $5.0K |
| Sep 12 | BUY MIBR
@ 54¢
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Playoffs | $5.0K |
| Sep 12 | SELL Legacy
@ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR - Map 1 Winner | $5.9K |
| Sep 12 | BUY Legacy
@ 61¢
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR - Map 1 Winner | $3.0K |
| Sep 11 | SELL B8
@ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest: European Qualifier Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest: European Qualifier Playoffs | $6.6K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.