Positive-Tolerant
Skill vs luck
Positive-Tolerant on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 67% (95% range 21%–94%) · profit +$18K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +0.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 3, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Positive-Tolerant: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 3, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xd98787eb89f48c199ec0edd6fdb10219df6bae37. Data CC BY 4.0.
Positive-Tolerant: +$18K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 67% (95% range 21%–94%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 4 – Sep 19
- +$18K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18 | BUY No @ 19¢ | Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? ↗ | $2.2K |
| Sep 17 | BUY Bills @ 53¢ | Spread: Bills (-4.5) ↗ | $10K |
| Sep 14 | BUY Chiefs @ 55¢ | Broncos vs. Chiefs ↗ | $5.5K |
| Sep 14 | BUY Chiefs @ 55¢ | Broncos vs. Chiefs ↗ | $11K |
| Sep 9 | BUY Yes
@ 46¢
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? |
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? | $4.5K |
All 5 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.