Snappy-Submarine-Mink

0xd8aae0eabb79f9c188f993afbd5f90384d3e7b9b

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Snappy-Submarine-Mink: −$11K on 19 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 26% (95% range 12%–49%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
−$11K
return −38.6%
Settled bets
19
$28K staked
Won
26.3%
95% range 12%–49%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 10 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Aug 20 – Sep 4
−$11K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Aug 28 BUY Yes @ 60¢
Will CD La Equidad Seguros win on 2026-08-26?
Will CD La Equidad Seguros win on 2026-08-26? $1.4K
Aug 27 BUY Toronto Blue Jays @ 50¢
Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays $1.8K
Aug 26 BUY Los Angeles Angels @ 54¢
Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels
Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels $1.5K
Aug 26 SELL Yes @ 99¢
SK Rapid Wien vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: Both Teams to Score
SK Rapid Wien vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: Both Teams to Score $4.0K
Aug 26 BUY San Diego Padres @ 65¢
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres $1.2K
Aug 26 BUY St. Louis Cardinals @ 58¢
Baltimore Orioles vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Baltimore Orioles vs. St. Louis Cardinals $7.0K
Aug 25 SELL Yes @ 97¢
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-08-25?
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-08-25? $2.1K
Aug 25 BUY No @ 56¢
Will Sabah FK win on 2026-08-25?
Will Sabah FK win on 2026-08-25? $1.7K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed