Artistic-Basil-Homonym

0xd794ba8c56b881853d97095e5710569fc4af248b

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Artistic-Basil-Homonym: −$3.2K on 21 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 43% (95% range 25%–64%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
−$3.2K
return −9.3%
Settled bets
21
$34K staked
Won
42.9%
95% range 25%–64%
Mostly bets on
esports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 10 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
−$3.4K
Sep 6 – Sep 24
+$264
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −10.9% (2,374 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Sep 12 SELL Movistar KOI @ 99.9¢
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs $1.2K
Sep 12 BUY Invictus Gaming @ 34¢
Game Handicap: IG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5)
Game Handicap: IG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) $1.3K
Sep 8 BUY Invictus Gaming @ 62¢
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs $2.6K
Sep 6 BUY T1 @ 60¢
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner $1.4K
Sep 2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports @ 64¢
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner $1.9K
Aug 30 SELL LYON @ 99.9¢
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO3) - LCS Regular Season
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO3) - LCS Regular Season $2.6K
Aug 30 BUY LYON @ 55¢
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO3) - LCS Regular Season
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO3) - LCS Regular Season $1.4K
Aug 29 BUY Leviatán Esports @ 65¢
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Playoffs
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Playoffs $4.4K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791788420, computed 2026-10-12 07:00 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791788420 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed