Extra-Large-Patron
Skill vs luck
Extra-Large-Patron on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 15%–85%) · profit −$130. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Extra-Large-Patron: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xd752b057c9fff4ced829df2adc0d62d404937b4f. Data CC BY 4.0.
Extra-Large-Patron: −$130 on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 15%–85%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 23 – Oct 10
- −$782
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- +$651
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | SELL Yes @ 99.05¢ | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-25? ↗ | $1.7K |
| Oct 26 | BUY Yes @ 62¢ | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-25? ↗ | $1.1K |
| Oct 26 | SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-10-26? ↗ | $1.1K |
| Sep 25 | BUY Natus Vincere @ 83¢ | Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs ↗ | $1.0K |
| Sep 24 | BUY Team Yandex
@ 85¢
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs 1win (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs |
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs 1win (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs | $1.3K |
All 5 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?