Natural-Gear
0xd52b8dcb4b812c4056faf41164a6f6c73f4c5c72
Natural-Gear: +$949 on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 67% (95% range 21%–94%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Profit
+$949
return +17.8%
Settled bets
3
$5.3K staked
Won
66.7%
95% range 21%–94%
Mostly bets on
politics/macro
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Sep 3 – Sep 17
- +$949
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.7%
(2,012 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6 | BUY No @ 87¢ | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? ↗ | $2.4K |
| Sep 29 | SELL No @ 99.5¢ | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? ↗ | $2.3K |
| Sep 16 | BUY No
@ 78¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026? |
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026? | $1.6K |
| Sep 16 | BUY No
@ 77¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026? |
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026? | $1.2K |
| Sep 15 | SELL No @ 88¢ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? ↗ | $2.0K |
| Sep 14 | BUY Yes @ 86¢ | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? ↗ | $2.6K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.