Scary-Pearl

0xd487f513cfead22d76b6db4567c756b3cf25053e

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗
Profit
−$5.2K
return −0.5%
Settled bets
217
$1.04M staked
Won
61.3%
95% range 55%–68%
Mostly bets on
esports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 111 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Aug 20 – Sep 4: +$15K Sep 4 – Sep 20: −$26K Sep 20 – Oct 5: +$6.2K
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

In the live feed

$16K bought Maryville University at 98¢

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 7 Bought NRG at 98¢
Valorant: NRG vs T1 - Map 1 Winner
Valorant: NRG vs T1 - Map 1 Winner $1.2K
Oct 6 Bought Team Falcons at 98¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage $5.3K
Oct 6 Sold M80 at 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage $4.2K
Oct 6 Bought M80 at 87¢
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage $1.1K
Oct 6 Sold ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix at 99.9¢
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs Frites Esports Club - Game 4 Winner
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs Frites Esports Club - Game 4 Winner $2.0K
Oct 6 Bought ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix at 99¢
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs Frites Esports Club - Game 4 Winner
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs Frites Esports Club - Game 4 Winner $1.3K
Oct 6 Sold Galions at 99.9¢
LoL: Galions vs BIG - Game 3 Winner
LoL: Galions vs BIG - Game 3 Winner $3.7K
Oct 6 Bought Galions at 99¢
LoL: Galions vs BIG - Game 3 Winner
LoL: Galions vs BIG - Game 3 Winner $2.3K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*) · computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed