Second-Thirst
0xd3faf1906cc31e75d1dfa0d7b57e8f97d33da26c
Second-Thirst: −$23K on 16 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 44% (95% range 23%–67%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$23K
return −22.4%
Settled bets
16
$101K staked
Won
43.8%
95% range 23%–67%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 16 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$24K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$1.7K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | BUY Rams
@ 52¢
Spread: Rams (-6.5) |
Spread: Rams (-6.5) | $6.0K |
| Sep 19 | BUY Northwestern
@ 63¢
Colorado vs. Northwestern |
Colorado vs. Northwestern | $7.7K |
| Sep 17 | BUY New York Mets
@ 54¢
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets |
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets | $10K |
| Sep 12 | BUY Texas
@ 51¢
Spread: Texas (-1.5) |
Spread: Texas (-1.5) | $2.0K |
| Sep 12 | BUY MIBR
@ 34¢
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Playoffs | $1.0K |
| Sep 12 | BUY G2
@ 63¢
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs G2 (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs G2 (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Playoffs | $3.0K |
| Sep 11 | BUY St. Louis Cardinals
@ 51¢
Chicago White Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals |
Chicago White Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals | $3.0K |
| Sep 6 | BUY Seattle Mariners
@ 69¢
Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners |
Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners | $12K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.