Mealy-Collaboration

0xd3b034d7bfb2473fb252d0414646d9786bac329e

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗
Profit
−$9.2K
return −1.0%
Settled bets
222
$902K staked
Won
56.3%
95% range 50%–63%
Mostly bets on
esports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 215 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Aug 20 – Sep 4: +$8.0K Sep 4 – Sep 20: +$3.2K Sep 20 – Oct 5: −$20K
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 7 Bought CyberHero at 30¢
Dota 2: MOUZ vs CyberHero - Game 1 Winner
Dota 2: MOUZ vs CyberHero - Game 1 Winner $2.0K
Oct 7 Bought FlyQuest at 77¢
LoL: GAM Esports vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner
LoL: GAM Esports vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner $13K
Oct 6 Bought Team Falcons at 62¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner $2.7K
Oct 6 Bought Blasterbl at 72¢
Dota 2: Blasterbl vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner
Dota 2: Blasterbl vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner $1.4K
Oct 6 Bought Spirit at 80¢
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 1WIN - Map 2 Winner
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 1WIN - Map 2 Winner $1.7K
Oct 6 Bought LGD Gaming at 51¢
LoL: JD Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner
LoL: JD Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner $4.8K
Oct 6 Bought LGD Gaming at 52¢
LoL: JD Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner
LoL: JD Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner $18K
Oct 6 Bought LGD Gaming at 50¢
LoL: JD Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner
LoL: JD Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner $4.2K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*) · computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed