Aggravating-Society
Skill vs luck
Aggravating-Society on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 25% (95% range 5%–70%) · profit −$1.3K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 18, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Aggravating-Society: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 18, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xd1f0c55f1008a3dad84839c5a898e25891a87a20. Data CC BY 4.0.
Aggravating-Society: −$1.3K on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 25% (95% range 5%–70%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 3 – Oct 18
- −$1.3K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17 | BUY Yes @ 70¢ | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-17? ↗ | $3.9K |
| Oct 11 | SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-11? ↗ | $2.3K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Over
@ 48¢
Málaga CF vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 2.5 |
Málaga CF vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 2.5 | $1.0K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Yes @ 72¢ | Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-09? ↗ | $2.0K |
| Oct 1 | BUY
@ 53¢
Wales vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-10-01? |
Wales vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-10-01? | $2.0K |
All 5 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?