Frugal-Beneficiary
0xd06c49e1c86f970bc5c48f91169a607e9b03cdaf
Frugal-Beneficiary: −$16K on 19 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 21% (95% range 9%–43%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$16K
return −38.9%
Settled bets
19
$41K staked
Won
21.1%
95% range 9%–43%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 15 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$904
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$13K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$2.2K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3 | BUY Team Spirit
@ 33¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner | $2.6K |
| Oct 1 | SELL OG
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: MOUZ vs OG - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: MOUZ vs OG - Game 1 Winner | $13K |
| Sep 29 | BUY GamerLegion
@ 26¢
Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner | $1.1K |
| Sep 27 | BUY LGD Gaming
@ 35¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs |
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs | $1.3K |
| Sep 27 | SELL LGD Gaming
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner | $13K |
| Sep 27 | BUY LGD Gaming
@ 40¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner | $3.0K |
| Sep 24 | BUY GamerLegion
@ 27¢
Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner | $1.5K |
| Sep 21 | BUY 1win
@ 50¢
Dota 2: Conventus Stellarum vs 1win - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Conventus Stellarum vs 1win - Game 1 Winner | $1.9K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.