Vengeful-Hose-Larder

0xce7df94b3aecfdfb6f58edb8626a225494eb898e

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗
Profit
+$1.6K
return +0.3%
Settled bets
106
$483K staked
Won
58.5%
95% range 49%–67%
Mostly bets on
esports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 101 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Aug 20 – Sep 4: −$855 Sep 4 – Sep 20: +$38K Sep 20 – Oct 5: −$35K
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 3 Bought LGD Gaming at 47¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner $1.7K
Oct 3 Bought LGD Gaming at 67¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner $2.1K
Oct 3 Bought LGD Gaming at 67¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner $5.2K
Oct 3 Bought LGD Gaming at 64¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner $1.1K
Oct 2 Bought 1win at 76¢
Dota 2: 1win vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner
Dota 2: 1win vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner $2.6K
Oct 1 Bought Aurora at 66¢
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group D
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group D $1.9K
Oct 1 Bought Team Liquid at 60¢
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner $2.3K
Oct 1 Bought GamerLegion at 67¢
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner $4.0K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*) · computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed