Rundown-Pleasure

0xce5fd046d90c8f0bde86654560e607eb6600d782

Skill vs luck

Rundown-Pleasure on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 0% (95% range 0%–49%) · profit −$5.3K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 18, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Rundown-Pleasure: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 18, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xce5fd046d90c8f0bde86654560e607eb6600d782. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Rundown-Pleasure: −$5.3K on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–49%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit

−$5.3K

return −100.0%

Settled bets

$5.3K staked

Won

0.0%

95% range 0%–49%

Mostly bets on

sports

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period

Oct 3 – Oct 18: −$5.3K

Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.

Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −8.2% (2,088 positions).

Latest captured bets

When	Bet	Market	Size
Oct 17	BUY Daniil Medvedev @ 64¢ Shanghai Rolex Masters: Rafael Jodar vs Daniil Medvedev	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Rafael Jodar vs Daniil Medvedev ↗	$1.0K
Oct 16	BUY Alexander Zverev @ 50¢ Set Handicap: Alexander Zverev (-1.5) vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (+1.5)	Set Handicap: Alexander Zverev (-1.5) vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (+1.5)	$1.5K
Oct 16	SELL @ 99.84¢ Shanghai Rolex Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul AND Medvedev vs. Paul: Match O/U 22.5	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul AND Medvedev vs. Paul: Match O/U 22.5	$2.3K
Oct 16	BUY Casper Ruud @ 46¢ Shanghai Rolex Masters: Rafael Jodar vs Casper Ruud	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Rafael Jodar vs Casper Ruud ↗	$1.5K
Oct 14	BUY Over @ 48¢ Medvedev vs. Tsitsipas: Match O/U 23.5	Medvedev vs. Tsitsipas: Match O/U 23.5	$1.2K
Oct 13	SELL @ 99.71¢ Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) AND Villarreal CF vs. SSC Napoli: SSC Napoli O/U 0.5	Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) AND Villarreal CF vs. SSC Napoli: SSC Napoli O/U 0.5	$1.7K

All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?

About this data · run 1792306820, computed 2026-10-18 07:00 UTC

Source: hopium_compute run 1792306820 (PG metrics_*)

Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
latest window has the most unresolved markets
Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed