Flawed-Hide
0xcd6d8ff026e08b7fe0faf47d877e18d2af9375c2
Flawed-Hide: +$508 on 14 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 64% (95% range 39%–84%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$508
return +3.1%
Settled bets
14
$16K staked
Won
64.3%
95% range 39%–84%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 11 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$1.0K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- +$1.5K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | BUY 1win
@ 88¢
Dota 2: 1win vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group B |
Dota 2: 1win vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group B | $1.1K |
| Sep 30 | BUY Team Yandex
@ 89¢
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner | $1.4K |
| Sep 27 | BUY Team Yandex
@ 93¢
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs |
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs | $2.0K |
| Sep 27 | BUY Natus Vincere
@ 87¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner | $1.3K |
| Sep 26 | BUY Natus Vincere
@ 74¢
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner | $2.0K |
| Sep 26 | BUY GamerLegion
@ 70¢
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner | $2.0K |
| Sep 25 | BUY GamerLegion
@ 61¢
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 1win - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 1win - Game 1 Winner | $1.5K |
| Sep 25 | BUY Natus Vincere
@ 75¢
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner | $1.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.