Quick-Grassland

0xcd3dde7cf49f0cc08cd3bf329c2334e4dbe4e7eb

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Quick-Grassland: −$18K on 18 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 11% (95% range 3%–33%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
−$18K
return −38.1%
Settled bets
18
$46K staked
Won
11.1%
95% range 3%–33%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 16 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Sep 6 – Sep 23
−$18K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Sep 11 SELL Yes @ 99.9¢
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-09-11?
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-09-11? $1.5K
Sep 11 BUY Alexis Galarneau @ 50¢
Shanghai: Pavel Kotov vs Alexis Galarneau
Shanghai: Pavel Kotov vs Alexis Galarneau $2.0K
Sep 10 BUY Billy Harris @ 54¢
Cassis: Moez Echargui vs Billy Harris
Cassis: Moez Echargui vs Billy Harris $5.0K
Sep 9 BUY Varvara Lepchenko @ 13¢
Barranquilla: Varvara Lepchenko vs Claire Liu
Barranquilla: Varvara Lepchenko vs Claire Liu $4.0K
Sep 9 BUY Yes @ 34¢
Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-09-09?
Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-09-09? $5.0K
Sep 9 BUY Gauff @ 43¢
Set Handicap: Gauff (-1.5) vs Andreeva (+1.5)
Set Handicap: Gauff (-1.5) vs Andreeva (+1.5) $2.0K
Sep 9 BUY Irene Burillo Escorihuela @ 37¢
Antalya 4: Irene Burillo Escorihuela vs Miriam Bulgaru
Antalya 4: Irene Burillo Escorihuela vs Miriam Bulgaru $8.0K
Sep 8 BUY Yes @ 7¢
Will Blackburn Rovers FC win on 2026-09-08?
Will Blackburn Rovers FC win on 2026-09-08? $2.0K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed