Modern-Goodbye

0xca5e612678e2adb5851e5b1b8e4a33ba31044af1

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Modern-Goodbye: +$1.2K on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 15%–85%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit
+$1.2K
return +10.3%
Settled bets
4
$12K staked
Won
50.0%
95% range 15%–85%
Mostly bets on
esports

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Sep 6 – Sep 23
+$5.7K
Sep 23 – Oct 11
−$4.5K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 10 BUY Under @ 69¢
SSC Napoli vs. Frosinone Calcio: Frosinone Calcio O/U 1.5
SSC Napoli vs. Frosinone Calcio: Frosinone Calcio O/U 1.5 $1.8K
Oct 2 BUY Astralis @ 32¢
Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5)
Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) $1.4K
Sep 30 BUY Team Liquid @ 46¢
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group D
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group D $3.9K
Sep 10 BUY No @ 44¢
FC Bayern München vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: Both Teams to Score
FC Bayern München vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: Both Teams to Score $4.5K

All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed