Only-Scientist
0xc9f4bec86118be62d973fd53004efca8fed8c1e4
Only-Scientist: +$3.8K on 23 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 70% (95% range 49%–84%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$3.8K
return +13.3%
Settled bets
23
$28K staked
Won
69.6%
95% range 49%–84%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 23 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$290
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$416
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- +$3.7K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | BUY Team Yandex
@ 57¢
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner | $1.1K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Aurora
@ 54¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner | $1.0K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Aurora
@ 70¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner | $1.7K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Team Spirit
@ 58¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner | $1.1K |
| Oct 8 | BUY PARIVISION
@ 70¢
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner | $1.2K |
| Oct 8 | BUY PARIVISION
@ 69¢
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner | $1.6K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Team Synapse
@ 44¢
Dota 2: Team Synapse vs Blasterbl - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Synapse vs Blasterbl - Game 2 Winner | $1.1K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Blasterbl
@ 45¢
Dota 2: Team Synapse vs Blasterbl - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Synapse vs Blasterbl - Game 2 Winner | $1.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.