Unfortunate-Pray
Skill vs luck
Unfortunate-Pray on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 67% (95% range 21%–94%) · profit +$160. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.5% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 23, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Unfortunate-Pray: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xc9dcc3d90ad3e34fe4132eb8661ae728d6da9026. Data CC BY 4.0.
Unfortunate-Pray: +$160 on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 67% (95% range 21%–94%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 5 – Sep 21
- +$150
- Sep 21 – Oct 7
- +$10
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | SELL No @ 99.9¢ | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? ↗ | $20K |
| Sep 29 | SELL No @ 99.9¢ | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? ↗ | $20K |
| Sep 26 | BUY No @ 98¢ | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? ↗ | $2.7K |
| Sep 18 | BUY No @ 99.5¢ | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? ↗ | $30K |
| Sep 14 | BUY No @ 97¢ | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? ↗ | $3.9K |
All 5 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?