Peppery-Memorial

0xc96aeabae8c81faf8d803201da1d2461cefc396a

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Peppery-Memorial: +$2.5K on 62 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 94%–100%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$2.5K
return +1.0%
Settled bets
62
$252K staked
Won
100.0%
95% range 94%–100%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 62 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
+$636
Sep 6 – Sep 23
+$1.5K
Sep 23 – Oct 11
+$269
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 3 BUY Over @ 99¢
West Virginia vs. Iowa State: O/U 41.5
West Virginia vs. Iowa State: O/U 41.5 $4.9K
Oct 3 BUY Memphis @ 99¢
Spread: Memphis (-3.5)
Spread: Memphis (-3.5) $5.1K
Sep 27 BUY UMass @ 99.9¢
Spread: UMass (-4.5)
Spread: UMass (-4.5) $5.1K
Sep 27 BUY Under @ 99¢
Florida Atlantic vs. Louisiana-Monroe: O/U 67.5
Florida Atlantic vs. Louisiana-Monroe: O/U 67.5 $5.1K
Sep 27 BUY Arkansas @ 99¢
Spread: Arkansas (-6.5)
Spread: Arkansas (-6.5) $5.1K
Sep 26 BUY Georgia State @ 99¢
Spread: Georgia State (-10.5)
Spread: Georgia State (-10.5) $4.9K
Sep 25 BUY Under @ 99.9¢
Georgia vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 1.5
Georgia vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 1.5 $10K
Sep 20 BUY Under @ 99¢
Seahawks vs. Cardinals: O/U 48.5
Seahawks vs. Cardinals: O/U 48.5 $2.5K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed