Dutiful-Fur

0xc8075693f48668a264b9fa313b47f52712fcc12b

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗
Profit
−$84K
return −9.5%
Settled bets
31
$892K staked
Won
41.9%
95% range 26%–59%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 31 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Aug 20 – Sep 4: −$23K Sep 4 – Sep 20: −$15K Sep 20 – Oct 5: −$46K
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 4 Bought Over at 51¢
Lions vs. Panthers: O/U 51.5
Lions vs. Panthers: O/U 51.5 $1.5K
Oct 4 Bought Texans at 58¢
Cowboys vs. Texans
Cowboys vs. Texans $58K
Oct 4 Bought Texas State at 54¢
Spread: Texas State (-8.5)
Spread: Texas State (-8.5) $12K
Oct 3 Bought Indiana at 50¢
Spread: Indiana (-24.5)
Spread: Indiana (-24.5) $25K
Oct 3 Bought Georgia Southern at 56¢
Georgia Southern vs. Coastal Carolina
Georgia Southern vs. Coastal Carolina $3.3K
Oct 3 Bought Temple at 50¢
Spread: South Florida (-5.5)
Spread: South Florida (-5.5) $15K
Oct 3 Bought Old Dominion at 52¢
Spread: Georgia State (-2.5)
Spread: Georgia State (-2.5) $15K
Oct 3 Bought Old Dominion at 50¢
Spread: Georgia State (-2.5)
Spread: Georgia State (-2.5) $14K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*) · computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed