Prickly-Effort

0xc74e958f3bd160cb0c6a782d664ad8440e27e725

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗
Profit
−$7.8K
return −3.2%
Settled bets
29
$247K staked
Won
58.6%
95% range 41%–75%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 19 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Sep 4 – Sep 20: +$48K Sep 20 – Oct 5: −$55K
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 6 Sold Team Falcons at 60¢
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5)
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5) $1.2K
Oct 6 Bought Team Falcons at 67¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner $3.0K
Oct 6 Sold 9z at 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: 9z vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
Counter-Strike: 9z vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage $1.6K
Oct 4 Bought at 20¢
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TYLOO (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage AND Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TYLOO (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage AND Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage $1.0K
Oct 4 Sold at 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage AND Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage AND Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage $2.6K
Oct 4 Bought at 64¢
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage AND Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage AND Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage $1.7K
Oct 3 Bought Cloud9 at 51¢
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner $1.8K
Oct 3 Bought Team Yandex at 51¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Seeding Matches
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Seeding Matches $12K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*) · computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed