Marvelous-Involvement-Stepgrandfather
Skill vs luck
Marvelous-Involvement-Stepgrandfather on Polymarket: 5 settled bets · won 60% (95% range 23%–88%) · profit +$1.3K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.3% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 19, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Marvelous-Involvement-Stepgrandfather: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 19, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xc6e20729b591f61f81b72b5f6c2be16cbf0f9f16. Data CC BY 4.0.
Marvelous-Involvement-Stepgrandfather: +$1.3K on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 60% (95% range 23%–88%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 19 – Oct 4
- −$458
- Oct 4 – Oct 19
- +$1.8K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18 | BUY Yes @ 63¢ | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-18? ↗ | $1.7K |
| Oct 17 | BUY Yes @ 61¢ | Will AS Roma win on 2026-10-17? ↗ | $1.2K |
| Oct 14 | BUY FC Bayern Munchen
@ 91¢
Anadolu Efes vs. FC Bayern Munchen |
Anadolu Efes vs. FC Bayern Munchen | $1.3K |
| Oct 9 | SELL Yes
@ 36¢
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-10-09? |
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-10-09? | $3.2K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Yes
@ 37¢
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-10-09? |
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-10-09? | $3.3K |
| Oct 3 | SELL Yes @ 87¢ | Will Switzerland win on 2026-10-03? ↗ | $3.1K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?