Tepid-Acquaintance
Skill vs luck
Tepid-Acquaintance on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 0% (95% range 0%–56%) · profit −$13K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +1.3% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 29, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Tepid-Acquaintance: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 29, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xc4c8983df5c71c6e7329e1a78ccbdde7ca10cabb. Data CC BY 4.0.
Tepid-Acquaintance: −$13K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–56%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 3
- −$8.3K
- Sep 3 – Sep 17
- −$4.5K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | BUY Yes @ 30¢ | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? ↗ | $2.5K |
| Sep 24 | BUY Yes @ 31¢ | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? ↗ | $6.0K |
| Sep 24 | BUY Yes @ 37¢ | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? ↗ | $4.0K |
| Sep 16 | BUY Yes @ 15¢ | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? ↗ | $2.0K |
| Sep 16 | BUY Yes @ 37¢ | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? ↗ | $1.0K |
| Sep 15 | BUY Yes @ 34¢ | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? ↗ | $5.0K |
| Sep 4 | BUY Yes @ 20¢ | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? ↗ | $2.5K |
All 7 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.