Revolving-Harvest-Diffuse

0xc4a68d127318fd917a188c35e839a0707e374e4e

Skill vs luck

Revolving-Harvest-Diffuse on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 75% (95% range 30%–95%) · profit +$8.5K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Revolving-Harvest-Diffuse: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xc4a68d127318fd917a188c35e839a0707e374e4e. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Revolving-Harvest-Diffuse: +$8.5K on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 75% (95% range 30%–95%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit

+$8.5K

return +17.9%

Settled bets

$48K staked

Won

75.0%

95% range 30%–95%

Mostly bets on

sports

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period

Oct 8 – Oct 25: +$8.5K

Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.

Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −8.9% (2,417 positions).

Latest captured bets

When	Bet	Market	Size
Oct 24	SELL Aaron Pico @ 99.9¢ UFC 333: Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita (Featherweight, Prelims)	UFC 333: Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita (Featherweight, Prelims) ↗	$6.4K
Oct 24	BUY Alexander Volkanovski @ 51¢ UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card)	UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card) ↗	$2.3K
Oct 24	BUY Aaron Pico @ 58¢ UFC 333: Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita (Featherweight, Prelims)	UFC 333: Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita (Featherweight, Prelims) ↗	$15K
Oct 18	BUY Kyle Daukaus @ 64¢ UFC Fight Night: Kyle Daukaus vs. Marc-Andre Barriault (Middleweight, Main Card)	UFC Fight Night: Kyle Daukaus vs. Marc-Andre Barriault (Middleweight, Main Card)	$11K
Oct 17	BUY Mandel Nallo @ 73¢ UFC Fight Night: Nate Landwehr vs. Mandel Nallo (Lightweight, Main Card)	UFC Fight Night: Nate Landwehr vs. Mandel Nallo (Lightweight, Main Card)	$8.9K
Oct 17	BUY Mandel Nallo @ 73¢ UFC Fight Night: Nate Landwehr vs. Mandel Nallo (Lightweight, Main Card)	UFC Fight Night: Nate Landwehr vs. Mandel Nallo (Lightweight, Main Card)	$8.9K
Oct 17	BUY Mandel Nallo @ 73¢ UFC Fight Night: Nate Landwehr vs. Mandel Nallo (Lightweight, Main Card)	UFC Fight Night: Nate Landwehr vs. Mandel Nallo (Lightweight, Main Card)	$1.2K

All 7 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?

About this data · run 1792911646, computed 2026-10-25 07:00 UTC

Source: hopium_compute run 1792911646 (PG metrics_*)

Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
latest window has the most unresolved markets
Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed