Apt-Cappuccino
Skill vs luck
Apt-Cappuccino on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 67% (95% range 21%–94%) · profit +$9.7K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +3.8% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 1, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Apt-Cappuccino: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 1, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xc46661a5c720740d7c70fbf2cfc10c5de8c4b5cf. Data CC BY 4.0.
Apt-Cappuccino: +$9.7K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 67% (95% range 21%–94%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 17 – Nov 1
- +$9.7K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | BUY Cavaliers
@ 49¢
Spread: Hawks (-5.5) |
Spread: Hawks (-5.5) | $9.8K |
| Oct 30 | BUY Cavaliers
@ 47¢
Spread: Hawks (-3.5) |
Spread: Hawks (-3.5) | $1.0K |
| Oct 29 | BUY Yes @ 36¢ | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October? ↗ | $1.7K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.