Skinny-Diving

0xc3db6a07351313cc684759dee1722d2bb1e90f98

Skill vs luck

Skinny-Diving on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 33% (95% range 6%–79%) · profit −$3.5K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 28, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Skinny-Diving: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 28, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xc3db6a07351313cc684759dee1722d2bb1e90f98. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Skinny-Diving: −$3.5K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 6%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit

−$3.5K

return −71.7%

Settled bets

$4.9K staked

Won

33.3%

95% range 6%–79%

Mostly bets on

other

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period

Sep 6 – Sep 23: −$3.5K

Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.

Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −11.1% (2,658 positions).

Latest captured bets

When	Bet	Market	Size
Oct 27	SELL No @ 95¢ Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? ↗	$19K
Sep 20	BUY No @ 52¢ US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? ↗	$2.3K
Sep 19	BUY No @ 53¢ US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? ↗	$5.2K
Sep 18	BUY No @ 80¢ Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by September 30, 2026?	Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by September 30, 2026?	$1.1K
Sep 17	BUY Yes @ 40¢ Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	$1.3K
Sep 17	BUY No @ 75¢ Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? ↗	$4.0K
Sep 16	BUY Yes @ 69¢ Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	$1.0K
Sep 8	BUY No @ 13¢ Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? ↗	$2.7K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?

About this data · run 1793170821, computed 2026-10-28 07:00 UTC

Source: hopium_compute run 1793170821 (PG metrics_*)

Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
latest window has the most unresolved markets
Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed